Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni went straight to the “Rocky” comparisons when asked about his team as an NFL odds underdog versus the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
That’s just lazy, Nick.
If anything, Philadelphia should feel like Maximus Decimus Meridius, better known as Russell Crowe’s lead character from the 2000 Best Picture winner, “Gladiator”.
After running through the likes of Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo during the team’s five-game winning streak, the Eagles still can’t earn the respect of the betting markets.
“Are you not entertained?!”
NFL bettors should be when Week 13 odds rekindle this rivalry in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.
I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this battle of NFC gladiators and give my free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Eagles on Sunday, December 3.
49ers vs Eagles odds
49ers vs Eagles predictions
Ask a 49ers fan about last season’s NFC Championship loss to the Eagles and they’ll say the 31-7 smackdown should come with an asterisk.
San Francisco played the majority of the game without a proper/healthy QB after “Cinderella Man” Brock Purdy blew his arm out eight minutes into the first quarter and backup Josh Johnson left in the third quarter with a concussion.
Purdy has picked up where he left off on that fateful day in Philly, putting together a sound 2023 campaign that had the second-year QB in the NFL MVP odds conversation earlier in the season.
The hype around “Mr. Irrelevant” has cooled in recent weeks, but Purdy has continued to captain Kyle Shanahan’s offense with efficiency. He’s averaging 261 passing yards and went for totals of 296, 333, and 365 in the three games prior to last week’s Thanksgiving Day win at Seattle.
Purdy finished the 31-13 win completing just 21 of 30 attempts for 209 yards with one touchdown and an interceptions. It leaned into a home/away trend for the 49ers quarterback, who has been stellar in the Bay Area, but sees a significant downtick in opposing venues.
Inside Levi’s Stadium, Purdy boasts a 132.6 passer rating while averaging 11.2 yards per attempt and completing better than 76% of his throws. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns to just two INTs in home stands.
On the road, however, Purdy’s passer rating slides to 95.6 while his average yards per attempt drops to 8.0 on a completion rate of just 65.3%. He’s thrown eight TDs in away games while getting picked off four times.
Purdy and the 49ers not only play their second straight road game in Week 13, but take on one of the most disruptive defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass rush ranks in the Top 10 in terms of pressure rate and QB hurries, adding up to 32 sacks and 44 QB hits.
Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai not only has all the scouting prep on Purdy from the Eagles’ NFC title game tilt last season, but he was a member of Seattle’s staff in 2022 and faced a Purdy-led 49ers offense twice.
“He’s slippery. He’s a little bit quick and can be evasive in the pocket,” Desai told reporters when asked about Purdy. “And he keeps his eyes up field and is able to target some explosives downfield that way too. We will have to have a good plan corralling him and getting tight to some of these routes so we can contest some of the throws that they throw.”
Brock Purdy odds for Week 13’s passing total are all over the place, with a market low of 252.5 yards and a high of 262.5 Over/Under. His player projections paint a similar split, with some models calling for highs of 270 yards and others pegging Purdy’s passing production just over 200 yards.
However, most models do come out lower than any of those varying Over/Under odds, with my number parked at 233.5 yards from the 49ers quarterback.
Not only do I see Purdy continue his struggles on the road, but given how well the Eagles can run the football — versus a soft 49ers run stop unit — and dominate possession, he may not get the touches needed to go Over this passing prop.
On top of that, the weather in Philadelphia could also impact Purdy’s production. The forecast is calling for steady rain throughout Sunday’s game, with temperatures dipping into the mid-40s in the second half.
As highlighted by Matt Barrows of The Athletic, Purdy’s worst games in terms of completion percentage came in the rain: 18-for-30 in the Wild Card Round vs. Seattle last season and 12-for-27 in the loss at Cleveland in Week 6.
My best bet: Brock Purdy Under 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
49ers vs Eagles same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Under 262.5 passing yardsJalen Hurts Over 41.5 rushing yardsJalen Hurts anytime TD
+446 at FanDuel
Purdy averages only 221 yards passing per road game and now faces a ferocious Philly defense in the rain.
Jalen Hurts’ knee is healthier and he’s returning to his role of a featured runner in the Eagles playbook. He’ll face plenty of pressure from the 49ers, which leads to more QB keepers.
The “Brotherly Shove” is unstoppable on the goal line, with Hurts scoring five touchdowns the past three games.
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