Two desperate divisional rivals will mix it up on Sunday with the offensively challenged New York Jets playing host to the 0-2 New England Patriots. Each team is at risk of having the wheels fall off early in their seasons, so gaining a little bit of momentum will be of the utmost importance for both. NFL odds have New England favored by 2.5 points while the game has the lowest total of the Week at 37.
Two major storylines coming into this one are the Patriots’ 14-game win streak vs. the Jets and Zach Wilson’s incompetence in four career games vs. New England.
Let’s dive into those stories and look at how the teams have performed so far this season. Here are my free NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Jets on September 24.
Patriots vs Jets odds
Patriots vs Jets predictions
Let’s start with that streak of 14 straight wins for the New England Patriots over the New York Jets. Yes, I know, games from six and seven years ago don’t really factor into this specific matchup on Sunday, but the Jets being the whipping boys of Bill Bilichick year-after-year shouldn’t go unmentioned.
Many of these wins weren’t even close, with the Patriots winning nine of the games by double-digits. This trend actually extends much further with New England winning 23 of the last 25 games between the teams.
When looking at some more recent history between the teams, one thing that really stands out is the performance of Zach Wilson. To say he’s struggled would be an understatement. In four career games vs. the Patriots, he has seven total interceptions and a quarterback rating of 50.6. Lowlights of his head-to-heads against this team include leading N.Y. to three points in a game last season and leading it to six in a 2021 matchup.
The strength of each team is clearly defense, while each offense is dramatically flawed. Let’s pick on the Patriots a little bit too as their offense has been nonexistent early in games so far as they’ve scored zero first-quarter points, despite playing each of their games at home. They’ve found themselves in early holes both times, with the Eagles getting off to a 16-0 lead and the Dolphins jumping out to a 17-3 lead.
New England simply doesn’t have the talent or ability to make up a big deficit vs. a quality opponent, but the Jets probably don’t have the talent or ability to put the Pats in a significant deficit.
New York’s offense has generated just two touchdowns this season — both scored by Garrett Wilson. The Patriots have done a decent job of keeping elite receivers like A.J. Brown and Tyreke Hill from going off against them, and I expect them to contain Wilson as well.
Finally, one last shot at Wilson… I realize he’s an easy target and it’s not my intention to pile on, but he’s once again off to an awful start this season with four interceptions thrown in two games. He’s clearly not the answer for the Jets right now and their hesitancy to bring another option will only make things worse.
There are lots of negatives for both teams, but more for New York, so I’ll roll with New England -2.5. With the J-E-T-S’ ranked dead-last in red zone TD scoring percentage and 31st in third down conversion percentage, I just don’t see many opportunities for them to score vs. a solid Patriots’ defense.
My best bet: Patriots -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
MORE NFL FREE PICKS
Not intended for use in MA.Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Patriots vs Jets same-game parlay
Patriots -2.5Under 43.5
+153 at FanDuel
It’s a strength vs. weakness game for both teams, with strong defenses vs. poor offenses. Last time these teams met, they combined for 13 total points and I wouldn’t be shocked to see a similar result, so I’ll happily take a nice cushion provided by the alternate total in this SGP.
When they do score, I expect more field goals than touchdowns and prolonged drives that’ll chew up a lot of clock. As stated above, the Jets have just two offensive touchdowns so far this season, while the Patriots offense is getting off to slow starts.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users30% profit boost on one anytime TD parlay! Claim Now
All Users50% profit boost on one Sunday NFL bet! Claim Now
All Users25% profit boost on one first TD scorer bet! Claim Now
All UsersBet $20 in NFL SGPs, get a $10 bonus bet! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Patriots vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
New England will be a favorite for the first time this season while the Jets are in familiar territory as an underdog. The Patriots have performed well when oddsmakers view them as the better team. They come into this game on a run that’s seen them go 11-4-1 against the spread in their last 16 games as a favorite. Specifically as a favorite against New York, they’ve covered five straight.
As for this total of 37, which is the lowest of the week, the Jets are on a stretch that’s seen them go Under in eight of their last 10 divisional matchups, while they’ve gone Under in 15 of 20 when hosting a divisional opponent. Going back to last season, 14 of their last 15 games have seen at least one of the teams fail to reach the 20-point mark.
